May 04, 2021
Summary of current season's economic situation analysis —2020Q4
Comprehensive analysis of the International Economic Outlook, Taiwan Economic Overview, and Taipei Econ Overview in the 2020Q4.
About the Author:Editing by Huang Nuan-Yun
Editor of Taipeiecon
International Economic Outlook
Observations of international organizations such as EIU, IMF, and the OECD reveal that the US's GDP growth rate shrank by 3.5% in 2020, which represents a drop of 5.7 percentage points over the previous year. These institutions project a maximum GDP growth rate of 5.1% for 2021. The Japanese GDP growth rate for the whole year contracted by 4.8%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous year. The maximum projected GDP growth rate for 2021 is 3.1%. The Eurozone GDP growth rate dropped by 6.8% in 2020. It is expected that the GDP growth rate will not exceed a maximum of 5.0% in 2021. The preliminary estimate for China is a GDP growth rate of 2.3% for the whole year, a decrease of 3.7% over 2019. Forecasts predict a maximum GDP growth rate of 8.1% for 2021.
Unit:%
2021 Global Economic Growth Forecast Compiled Chart
| IMF 2021.01 (2020.10) | UN 2021.01 (2020.05) | IHS Markit 2021.02 (2021.01) | OECD 2020.12 (2020.09) | EIU 2021.02 (2021.01) | WB 2021.01 (2020.06) |
region | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 |
Global |
5.5 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
3.4 |
5.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
(5.2) |
(4.2) |
(4.2) |
(-) |
(4.4) |
(4.1) |
(5.0) |
(-) |
(4.5) |
(3.4) |
(4.2) |
(-) |
USA |
5.1 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
5.7 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
(3.1) |
(2.9) |
(3.9) |
(-) |
(4.0) |
(3.9) |
(4.0) |
(-) |
(3.7) |
(2.3) |
(4.0) |
(-) |
JAPAN |
3.1 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
(2.3) |
(1.7) |
(3.2) |
(-) |
(2.3) |
(1.6) |
(1.5) |
(-) |
(1.7) |
(1.5) |
(2.5) |
(-) |
EURO |
4.2 |
3.6 |
5.0 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
(5.2) |
(3.1) |
(2.9) |
(-) |
(3.4) |
(4.0) |
(5.1) |
(-) |
(4.8) |
(3.9) |
(4.5) |
(-) |
CHINA |
8.1 |
5.6 |
7.2 |
5.8 |
7.6 |
5.6 |
8.0 |
4.9 |
8.5 |
5.0 |
7.9 |
5.2 |
(8.2) |
(5.8) |
(7.6) |
(-) |
(7.6) |
(5.6) |
(8.0) |
(-) |
(8.7) |
(5.0) |
(6.9) |
(-) |
Note:( )advance estimate。
Source:
- IMF:World Economic Outlook(January 26th 2021)
- UN:World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021(January 26th 2021)
- HS Markit:Economic Outlook(February 16th 2021)
- OECD:OECD Economic Outlook(December 2th 2020)
- EIU:EIU Country Forecast World March 2021(forecast closing date:February 15th 2021)
- WB:Global Economic Prospects(January 5th 2021)
- Organized by the Department of Industrial Development of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research.
Taiwan Economic Overview
Key domestic economic indicators in 2020 point to a real economic growth rate (GDP) of 3.11%. The export order volume rose by 10.13% to hit a record high of US$ 533.66 billion, an increase of US$ 49.104 billion over the previous year. The export trade value reached a new high of US$ 345.274 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.90%. The industrial production index and manufacturing industry production index climbed to 115.84 and 116.83, respectively. This represents a year-on-year rise of 6.81% and 7.26%.
Taiwan Economic Overview
Indicator | Statistical interval | Data | YoY |
GDP (%) |
2020 (whole year) |
3.11 |
— |
Export Orders (US$ billion) |
2020 (whole year) |
533.66 |
▲10.13% |
Custom Exports (US$ hundred million) |
2020 (whole year) |
3,452.74 |
▲4.90% |
Industrial Production Index in Taiwan |
2020 (whole year) |
115.84 |
▲6.81% |
Taipei Econ Overview
As of the end of December 2020, a total of 239,434 businesses were registered in Taipei City. This number rose by 892 compared to the previous year, which represents a year-on-year increase of 0.37%. Firms registered in Taipei account for 14.79% of all businesses in Taiwan. The total registered capital of the Taipei City companies reaches13.1260 trillion, constituting 51.58% of the aggregate capital of all firms in Taiwan. 1,032 factories are currently registered in Taipei City, which is 18 less than last year.
The total actual number of companies and firms in Taipei City totals 239,069 had a sales volume of 13.7677 trillion in 2020, representing an increase of 1.76% compared to the previous year and accounts for 31.48% of the total sales volume of all Taiwanese businesses. The tertiary industry had a sales volume of 11.1917 trillion, making up 44.97% of the total sales of all tertiary businesses in Taiwan. Approved foreign investments in Taipei City amount to US$ 5.29 billion, a decrease by US$ 3.047 billion over 2019. This amount accounts for 57.85% of all foreign investments in Taiwan. 268 newly established foreign companies were registered in Taipei City in 2020, which is 77 less than in 2019.
Taiwan Econ Overview
Indicator | Statistical interval | Data | YoY | Percentage of total for the whole country |
Industry & Business Registration (Number) |
Dec. 2020 (bottom value) |
239,434 |
▲892 |
14.79% |
Total Capital of Companies Registered (NT$ hundred million) |
Dec. 2020 (bottom value) |
131,260 |
▲0.85% |
51.58% |
Factory Registration (Number) |
Dec. 2020 (bottom value) |
1,032 |
▼18 |
1.10% |
Number of Companies and Firms (Number) |
Dec. 2020 (bottom value) |
239,069 |
▲3,241 |
15.86% |
Sales of Companies and Firms (NT$ hundred million) |
Jan.–Dec. (Cumulative value) |
137,677 |
▲1.76% |
31.48% |
Sales of Tertiary Industry (NT$ hundred million) |
Jan.–Dec. (Cumulative value) |
111,917 |
▼1.26% |
44.97% |
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ million) |
Jan.–Dec. (Cumulative value) |
5,290 |
▼30.47 |
57.85% |
Number of Newly Established Foreign Companies (Number) |
Jan.–Dec. (Cumulative value) |
268 |
▼77 |
X |